Washington should coordinate with other democracies to maximize the impact of international support in these areas. There are five main challenges to effective coordination: (1) government biases and processes favor bilateral efforts instead of cooperation in engaging third countries; (2) the dominant narrative portrays U.S.-China competition in bilateral terms and does not take into account allied and partner contributions; (3) regional countries seek unique and separate relationships with the United States, and there are divergences in interests between the United States, allies, and partners; (4) Chinese influence in allies and partners could undermine their ability and willingness to coordinate with the United States; and (5) differing U.S., allied, and partner planning and budget cycles complicate efforts to develop coordinated or joint plans. The United States is an Indo-Pacific power. In countries where China exerts a strong influence, its engagement can have a substantial impact on local and international efforts to curb violence and extremism. Drawing from interviews in all nine countries and data gathered, the authors apply this framework to assess how regional countries view U.S.-China competition in their respective countries and how China views competition in each of the regional countries. The United States strongly opposes such attempts to alter the status quo in the East China Sea and has long been clear that the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty applies to the Senkaku Islands by virtue of Japans administration of the islands. Decisions like the PRCs 2013 declaration of an East China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone are equally brazen attempts to change the status quo in the East China Sea and makeclear the PRC has no interest in playing a positive role in theregion. Balancing is driven, or mitigated, by factors that are diverse, complex, and local, tethered to the costs, benefits, incentives, and domestic politics in each capital. Sajit Gandhi, House Foreign Affairs Committee, Democratic Staff Projects Summary China will seek to continue growing its influence among the Indo-Pacific countries through more extensive economic partnerships and potential security cooperation. Tamanna Salikuddin, United States Institute of Peace Still, they recognize that South Asias strategic geography and growing population, along with nuclear and terrorism risks, merit sizable allocations of attention and resources. The United States stands with its Southeast Asian allies and partners to champion a free and open Indo-Pacific. Because regional crises involving China are likely to become more frequent, a mechanism should be established to enable sharing experiences and developing best practices on crisis management among the United States, India, and other like-minded partners. Improve U.S. public messaging on U.S.-China competition by increasing messaging on allied and partner contributions and combined efforts. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Initiate a pilot project to develop common five-year security cooperation plans between the U.S. Air Force and the Royal Australian Air Force for Indonesia or Malaysia and between the U.S. Air Force and the Japan Air Self-Defense Force for the Philippines or Vietnam. Balancing is one of the oldest and most intuitive concepts in international relations. First, until the nuclear situation is resolved on the Korean Peninsula, North Korea will remain our most immediate threat. The United States will need to advance the partnership at Indias pace and be patient with incremental steps. Further, China, India, and Pakistan should continue to be engaged to identify steps each country can take to help sustain peace and economic growth in Afghanistan after a peace settlement. Jacqueline Deal, Long Term Strategy Group LLC Although American policy should be coordinated with Indian regional aims, Washington should not subcontract its regional policy to New Delhi. This would allow Gwadar to act as a vital port of distribution for Chinese goods going into the Middle East and East Africa and for Middle Eastern and East African raw materials going to China. The new framework will supplement the US security focus and seek to . The softer balancers will continue striving to avoid making difficult choices, but their postures are not cemented in stone. The BRI has been widely recognized as Beijing's ambitious grand strategy to reshape and dominate the regional and international order by building infrastructure networks across Eurasia and eastern Africa. South Asian nations will be looking for options and relief from China, the United States, and multilateral financial institutions. The summer 2020 border crisis and deaths of twenty Indian and an unknown number of Chinese troops in Ladakh put New Delhis challenge of balancing cooperation and competition in stark relief and will limit Chinas ability to pursue opportunities in India for years. Coordinating with allies and partners to engage third countries provides four main benefits to the United States: Coordination (1) pools resources, (2) facilitates division of labor that leverages unique allied and partner strengths and relationships, (3) counters PRC influence in countries with which the United States cannot fully engage, and (4) achieves U.S. objectives without asking regional countries to explicitly align themselves with the United States (which regional countries are wary of doing). U.S.-China bilateral competition and confrontation make cooperation in South Asia, including during major crises, substantially more difficult. How do regional countries view U.S. versus Chinese influence in their respective countries? Debt suspension measures that G20 states, including China, recently committed to provide a good start. The U.S. and Australia are taking the lead in upholding freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, as Japan and India resist Chinese adventurism along their disputed land and maritime borders. What are the United States and China competing for in the Indo-Pacific? China has embarked on a grand journey west. Although the United States and China will each maintain working relations with India and Pakistan, more than at any point in history Washington and New Delhi have similar outlooks that diverge from the overlapping views of Beijing and Islamabad. The group members drew from their deep individual experiences working in and advising the U.S. government to generate a set of focused, actionable policy recommendations. / China can leverage its economic influence for a variety of goals, including to weaken U.S. military influence. Ashley J. Tellis, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace This system also refutes arguments made by Chinese leaders, among others, that democracy is inconsistent with Asian political culture; it allows Indias vibrant and diverse society to be a strength rather than a weakness; and it enhances Indias soft power throughout the region. The United States should develop and launch an initiative to quantify and publicize existing, deep trade and investment ties that South Asian states have with the United States and its allies and partners, and how they stack up against China. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. Chinas approach toward India-Pakistan disputes increasingly favors Pakistan rather than adopts a more neutral stance, in part because backing Pakistan helps China constrain Indian power in Asia. Patrick Cronin, Hudson Institute India is historically wary of U.S. bilateral cooperation with neighboring states, but transparency and coordination have improved in conjunction with an overall improvement in U.S.-India relations. The PRC continues to use its growing military might to control key waterways in the South China Sea and intimidate the freedom-loving people of Taiwan. Contrary to its commitment to pursue a peaceful solution, the PRC has increasingly turned to military intimidation in an attempt to coerce Taiwan into submitting to Beijing. This includes an unprecedented number of air incursions, threatening propaganda, and exercises simulating attacks on Taiwan. These activities threaten regional peace and stability. Develop targeted nonmilitary means to counter Chinese economic influence in the Indo-Pacific. Improve public messaging on the economic benefits and value that U.S. military and security cooperation bring to regional countries. By: The region, stretching from our Pacific coastline to the Indian . Along the way, their first stop is South Asia, which this report defines as comprising eight countriesAfghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lankaalong with the Indian Ocean (particularly the eastern portions but with implications for its entirety). To some extent, countries such as Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh see engagement with China as a hedge against Indian dominance. Indias bid to join the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum could be supported as well, even though doing so would require some Indian trade reforms in advance. China (PRC), Japan, and India. At the same time, the risks and impact on India of a future India-Pakistan nuclear crisis and conflict escalation need to be underscored to New Delhi. Political calculations play a major role as well. SINGAPORE -- United States Indo-Pacific Command chief Adm. John Aquilino said Thursday that Washington does not seek to contain China, nor seek conflicts in the region . The diplomatic culture in many ASEAN capitals, for example, is historically averse to military blocs and alliances. Both countries nominally have a mutual interest in countering violent extremism, ensuring strategic stability and crisis management between India and Pakistan, and promoting regional economic development. Amid perceived U.S. retrenchment from the Middle East, the deal is a diplomatic win for China as it increasingly seeks to present an alternative vision to the U.S.-led global order. Partner alignment is likely to be weak and incomplete. Has China, and the more assertive trajectory it has charted over the past decade, prompted a wave of Indo-Pacific balancing? Sheena Greitens, Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs, The University of Texas at Austin Tanvi Madan, Brookings Institution Effective protocols for border patrol operations and crisis management can help mitigate tensions but will not stop flare-ups altogether. Although it wants to avoid taking on the burden of Pakistans problems, Beijing is also heavily invested in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) as the potential crown jewel of the BRI and an overland transit route to the Indian Ocean. The Biden administration's launch of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) negotiations signals renewed US economic engagement in the region. Nick Schifrin discussed the plan with Mara Karlin, who is performing the duties of . The Pentagon's competition-obsessed Office of Net Assessment started pushing the idea of expanding American influence in the Indian Ocean as part of a broader reorientation of U.S. statecraft toward Asia as early as 2002. On Monday, the Pentagon announced plans to spend $6.1 billion on the Pacific Defense Initiative, which is intended to "strengthen deterrence against China," according to budget documents. But it is also one whose economic growth prior to the COVID-19 pandemic was robust, that has a demographic dividend, and whose vibrant independent states are grappling with the challenges of democratic governanceincluding the worlds largest democracy in India. Regional countries prefer to not choose between the United States or China and may not side with the United States if forced to pick. Japan and the United States had serious talks about China's influence in the Indo-Pacific region, and both countries agreed to oppose any attempt to change the status quo by force in the East and the South China Seas, said Japan Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga on Friday. RAND Project AIR FORCE researchers addressed these questions by first defining what influence means in the context of great-power competition and creating a framework to measure U.S. versus PRC influence. Anja Manuel, Rice, Hadley, Gates & Manuel LLC Broaden the scope of U.S. engagement with South Asia to fully integrate the region into a free and open Indo-Pacific vision. Even as the United States prioritizes the India partnership, it should not foreclose on a valuable relationship with Pakistan and cede all influence to China. These include high-standard U.S. private investment as an alternative to Chinese investment, good governance advanced through programs like the Millennium Challenge Corporation and Blue Dot Network certification, and contributing to maritime security, disaster preparedness, and climate resilience. Nonmilitary tools should be used more effectively to influence the region, starting with packaging and communicating the popular activities the United States already does there. THE alliance of Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom, or Aukus, has revealed a plan to launch a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines in the Indo-Pacific region as part of its deterrent shield against China. South Asian states are largely fragile democracies. The project also examines how the United States can improve its ability to work with allies and partners to maintain its advantage in long-term competition with China. More narrowly, it should facilitate and build on exchanges to share best practices for countering foreign influence in domestic politics and elections from East Asian states such as Japan and Taiwan, who have extensive experience and demonstrated success in those areas. These could include demanding suspension of Chinese arms transfers to Pakistan in the midst of crises, matching Chinese diplomatic support for Pakistan with a U.S. tilt toward India, and mobilizing U.S. allies to impose sanctions on Pakistan over financing and sponsoring terrorist acts against India. Chinas support for Pakistans territorial claims also bolsters its own. Research Team: Colin Cookman, Lucy Stevenson-Yang, Emily Ashbridge, Alison McFarland, Zaara Wakeel, Henry Tugendhat, United States Institute of Peace. Carla Freeman, Ph.D.; Mary Glantz, Ph.D.; Andrew Scobell, Ph.D. Daniel Russel, Asia Society Policy Institute They consider other areas, such as East Asia, more central to advancing their interests. South Asia should be made a priority region for U.S. International Development Finance Corporation projects and USAID to provide financing options as well as legal, regulatory, and policy assistance to countries seeking to boost regional connectivity. Shehzi Khan, United States Indo-Pacific Command Countries like Vietnam and the Philippines have more volatile territorial disputes with China and more salient concerns about its aggressive tactics in the South China Sea. Regional countries view the United States as having more diplomatic and military influence than China, and China as having more economic influence. Search for experts, projects, publications, courses, and more. Increase U.S. efforts to aid South Asian nations in the consolidation of democratic institutions. Beijing should not be allowed to treat the South China Sea as its maritime empire. The United States stands with its Southeast Asian allies and partners in protecting their sovereign rights to offshore resources, consistent with their rights and obligations under international law. Further, the United States stands with the international community in defense of freedom of the seasrejecting any efforts to impose might makes right in the South China Sea or the wider region. Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience. In this report series, the authors assess the perspectives of Australia and New Zealand as they implement their responses to China's more assertive foreign and security policy behavior in the Indo-Pacific and to a more competitive U.S.-China relationship. Over the last year, Beijing has not supported Russia in U.N. votes, has refrained from providing Russia with weapons, and has publicly proclaimed neutrality. For most of Chinas immediate neighbours, balancing activity ranges from modest to non-existent. The United States and China both see South Asia as important, although neither considers the region its top geopolitical priority. Critically, they are not as capable or as resilient as the Quad countries in withstanding Chinese pressure or coercion. office of the spokesperson | april 19, 2019. It cautions against airing geopolitical grievances in public. Adam Gallagher; Sarhang Hamasaeed; Garrett Nada. Position on Maritime Claims in the South China Sea, Joint Statement of the Security Consultative Committee, The U.S., Taiwan, and the World: Partners for Peace and Prosperity, The Peoples Republic of China: Many Neighbors, Many Disputes. The United States should manage expectations about its role as Indias partner and a third-party crisis manager to preempt risks of entrapment or perceptions of abandonment. To the extent that Chinas infrastructure investment spurs regional integration in a transparent way and at a sustainable cost, it can be a genuine common good. Over time, Chinas geopolitical objective may expand to matching or supplanting the United States and India as the most capable maritime force in the Indian Ocean region. Chinas appeal lies in offering development financing where the strings attached are related to Beijings concerns, such as political issues like Hong Kong, contracting with Chinese firms, adopting Chinese standards, and gaining strategic access. They are more likely to view Chinese actions as a challenge rather than a threat, and more likely to see harder balancing strategies as prone to invoke Beijings ire. Yet bilateral tension and mutual suspicion about each others activities in the region restrict the prospects for sustained cooperation beyond rhetoric. Some issues in South Asia should be insulated from the strategic competition between the United States and China, that is, not used to gain geopolitical leverage against Beijing. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. Yet, characterising the Quad as a small minority is both technically true and exceptionally deceiving. Propose new avenues of U.S. Air Force engagement with Malaysia through its membership in the Five Power Defense Arrangements. While there is a long history of international partnerships in the Indo-Pacific, many recent forays in the region are in response to China's economic, political and military expansion there. USIP China-South Asia Senior Study Group. On the one hand, accelerated project timelines and minimal oversight can provide local leaders with rapid and visible progress they can take credit forsometimes lining their pockets in the process. The downside? Avoid framing activities with regional countries mainly in U.S.-China competition terms; consider creative ways to design engagements to achieve similar objectives while avoiding the optics of requiring the partner to choose between the United States or China. KUALA LUMPUR, Malaysia (AP) United States Indo-Pacific Command chief Adm. John Aquilino said Thursday that Washington does not seek to contain China, nor seek conflicts in the region, but it . The United States should not oppose Chinas taking on more of the burden in Pakistan for fostering economic growth and addressing security threats. Dave Rank, Jackson Institute for Global Affairs, Yale University In comments at a public event and in a written . Finally, the authors discuss how the United States could work more effectively with allies and partners in Southeast Asia and beyond. Set priorities for American engagement in South Asia that consider the regions relative importance for U.S. global strategy, Chinas growing role there, and shifting regional trends. Deepen ties with Indiaalong with facilitating New Delhis cooperation with U.S. allies and partners in Asia and Europeacross diplomatic, economic, technology, and military areas. Mr Biden's Indo-Pacific Economic Framework may nod to the region's new nomenclature, but offers none of the market access its members want. However, the goal of engaging in South Asian multilateral groups ought to be to signal a long-term U.S. commitment to the region, as well as to learn more about local concernsnot to be drawn deeper into squabbles between neighbors. In which countries do we expect competition be most intense? Facilitating Indias integration in a network of diplomatic, economic, and trade partnerships with democratic states should continue, most prominently through the Quad grouping with Japan and Australia, but also through links to other Indo-Pacific and European partners. programs offered at an independent public policy research organizationthe RAND Corporation. Creative procurement options, such as equipment leases, to fill critical gaps should be explored. But the extent to which Beijing is able to truly exert influence through economic statecraft remains an open and important question for researchers and policymakers alike, says China analyst Matt Ferchen. I examined this question in a 2018 book I edited and co-authored, Asias Question for Balance, Chinas Rise and Balancing in the Indo-Pacific.9Together with 12 co-authors from across the Indo-Pacific, we sought to shine an analytical light on Indo-Pacific balancing. The formal revival of the group in 2017 complements a rapidly expanding network of bilateral and trilateral defense and strategic connections among the four democracies.7It is no great secret this activity is motivated in part by shared concerns about Chinese foreign policy. A peace process should be continued in Afghanistan for which all major regional states support the basic parameters, namely, that Afghan territory should not be used to threaten its neighbors and that Afghanistan should not be a venue for proxy warfare. Iran and Saudi Arabia announced last Friday a Chinese-brokered deal to restore relations. The emerging period of Sino-American strategic competition, which could last for decades, is likely to influence both the U.S. and Chinese assessments of and engagements in South Asia. The Manila Times Podcasts. On Afghanistan, China and the United States have common goals of stopping the spread of international terrorism and reaching a political settlement to bring an end to decades of violent conflict, though how they try to achieve these goals differs in practice. Beijing has also effectively wielded both carrots and sticks, co-opting, enriching and threatening influential patronage networks in neighbouring countries to induce alignment with Chinese foreign policy priorities. The fluid contest for influence among and between South Asian states makes it difficult for Washington to maintain good relations with countries across the entire region simultaneously. The United States needs to change its diplomatic approach toward the region to make its policy less about responding to China and more about engaging with states in South Asia to resolve problems. "We also discussed free and open Indo-Pacific. Despite Russias invasion of Ukraine which marks a clear violation of international law Moscow has enjoyed support from a number of countries. How could this shift affect global stability? There is indeed ample evidence of elevated balancing activity underway across the Indo-Pacific. United States and China vie for influence in Indo-Pacific. They prefer a rules-based regional order, where freedom of navigation and peaceful dispute settlement prevail over a might-makes-right approach. Develop a list of U.S. objectives and priority countries for competition with China for each region (including the Indo-Pacific) to enable whole-of-government competition. For most regional capitals, that is the least desirable scenario. Early in 2021, the new administration should commission a National Intelligence Estimate of Chinas maritime activities in the Indian Ocean and its rimland areas, including both commercial and military moves. 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