Although we did not consider scenarios of Israels internal development, and instead focused mainly on its external environment, the former may ultimately prove to be the most decisive variable for its future. Rather, it is a landscape created through a combination of change and continuity, and so there is a high probability of departing from at least some currently dominant trends. The current realities worldwide and in the Middle East highlight the importance of preparing for the next decade in the region through the lens of scenarios rather than straightforward predictions. Futures Thinking Methodologies Options Relevant For Schooling For Tomorrow. 9. Rising Temperatures, Rising Risks: Climate Change and Israels National Security. The Institute for National Security Studies. It also highlights the formidable threats that climate change might pose to regional regimes as early as the next decade. Lastly, the latest statement shows that the Oman central bank is set to raise the repo rate by 50 bps. While it is true that populism emerged in Latin America, its appeal to those left behind by globalization proved to be global in nature, including unexpectedly though perhaps more importantly in the U.S. 12. The petrostates in the Middle East continue to provide financial support for the poorer states in the region. However, it soon becomes apparent that the new government retains the ancien rgimes hegemonic ambitions. Nevertheless, scenarios are an indispensable and creative mechanism that produces what is known as interesting research 9 (that which is innovative and more likely to produce learning), broadens thinking about future possibilities, and helps to prevent group-think. After stabilizing the situation in Tehran and putting an end to the domestic unrest, the Government of Iran undertakes a policy of increasing support for the militias in Iraq (in the context of an ongoing civil war in the divided country) and launching covert campaigns to destabilize the Gulf monarchies. Economic Outlook Note - Israel GDP growth is projected to moderate from a strong 6.3% in 2022 to 2.8% in 2023 and 3.4% in 2024. As for counterterrorism, it has served as a driving force behind American involvement in a variety of theaters including Afghanistan, Syria, and Iraq, so the regrouping or decline of jihadist or other transnational militant groups from the region could factor into the level of U.S. engagement in the Middle East. To build a resilient and strong recovery, policy should focus on upskilling and education. Climate change could have significant implications for the future dynamics of the region, in terms of the fallout from worsening phenomena like water scarcity as well as cooperative relations developed in order to mitigate such problems. He served on Israels National Security Council in the Prime Ministers Office, coordinating the work on Iran and the Gulf under four National Security Advisers and three Prime Ministers. In return, Damascus receives recognition of its control over Syrian Kurdish territories (albeit granting local bodies some autonomy), an invitation to return to the Arab League, and some Gulf funding for Syrian reconstruction efforts. March 7, 2023 29:06 Ron. This leads to a decline in the interest of great powers in the region. After several months of fierce clashes a reconciliation process is initiated under the auspices of the African Union, Russia, and China. August 21, 2019. https://dayan.org/content/middle-east-demographics-2030. Increasing interest rates and lower stock market valuations will weigh on investment. The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques. Foresight 9 (1). Beyond the distinct methods, it is also worth keeping in mind that different vantage points will produce different scenarios. Aside from that, Asian stocks are sagging and are not strong at all in 2022 due to China COVID resurgence. These concessions are granted in exchange for broadening Irans civilian nuclear program (construction of five reactors paid for by an international consortium) and the lifting of all sanctions. MENA Generation 2030. Unicef. The following article addresses the question of how the Middle East might develop in the coming decade. The scenarios are exploratory, rather than predictive or normative,20 meaning that they aim to answer the question of what can happen rather than what will or what should. Learning from the best practices of those who have done work in this vein before us, we concluded that it would be foolhardy to try to calculate the likelihood of any particular event or scenario. Strategic Technologies and Cyber Security, Oman Library at the Middle East Institute, The Libyan Banking Sector: A Microcosm of Global Enduring Disorder, After Oil-for-Security: A Blueprint for Resetting US-Saudi Security Relations, Understanding Analytical Tools for Thinking About the Futures, https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-risks-report-2020, https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/forecast, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/228623754_The_current_state_of, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/331564544_Scenario_Building_Th, https://www.oecd.org/site/schoolingfortomorrowknowledgebase/futuresthin, https://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/how-to-make-sense-of-weak-signals/, https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/strategy-and-corporate-fina, https://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/134-AE03.pdf, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0016328715000841, http://www.oecd.org/education/ceri/35393902.pdf, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/258510126_Methods_of_Future_an, https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Global%20Trends_Mapping%20the%20Glo, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/ME2020.pdf, https://www.thecipherbrief.com/column_article/covid-19-information-and-, https://www.intelligence-research.org.il/userfiles/banners/Itai.Brun.pdf, https://www.inss.org.il/publication/middle-east-economy/, https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/14636680710727516/f, https://www.wita.org/atp-research/the-rules-based-multilateral-order-a-, https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/us-policy-middle-ea, https://www.csis.org/analysis/toward-more-proliferated-world, https://dayan.org/content/middle-east-demographics-2030, https://www.unicef.org/mena/sites/unicef.org.mena/files/2019-08/MENA%20, http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/907071571420642349/HCP-MiddleEast-Plan-, https://www.arabbarometer.org/wp-content/uploads/social-capital-public-, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/how-climate-change-cou, https://www.inss.org.il/publication/climate-change-and-national-securit, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/e, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/1994-07-01/peering-future, https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol17/iss2/art10/, https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/turkeys-dam-building-program-could-ge, https://learningenglish.voanews.com/a/rising-sea-levels-threaten-egypt-, What will the Middle East look like in 2030? Tarik M. Yousef, Ranj Alaaldin, Geneive Abdo, Ali Fathollah-Nejad, Omar Rahman, Yasmina Abouzzohour, Galip Dalay, Nader Kabbani, Adel Abdel Ghafar, and Noha Aboueldahab However, it is worth noting that because these camps are composed of individual actors with interests that do not always entirely overlap with one another, hedging and limited inter-camp cooperation occur when interests dictate. How Israel fares in this realm will depend on investment in formalized long-term planning mechanisms, vesting them with authority, and ensuring that the decisionmakers at various levels allocate a significant portion of their time to planning for a range of potential alternative futures. The Israeli labour market is tight, with a low unemployment rate (3.9% in 2022) and employment above pre-crisis levels, so that the vacancy rate has stabilised at a historically high level towards the end of the year. It's However, Q4's figure was flattered by a one-off jump in vehicle sales, likely ahead of a tax hike on electric vehicles in . At Irans urging, Hezbollah agrees to Lebanons settling of the maritime boundary dispute with Israel in order to develop the Lebanese gas fields though the group maintains its hold on political power and arms. Elevated inflation will slow disposable income and private consumption. 2023 The Times of Israel , All Rights Reserved. In this scenario, reduced U.S. pressure on Iran does not eliminate the possibility of regime change, but the new regime may not enter the Western orbit or forfeit hegemonic and nuclear ambitions if doing so has not or cannot deliver considerable improvements in Iranians living conditions. This scenario demonstrates that a great power vacuum and resulting deterioration of the regional order could be accompanied by opportunities for Israel to diminish significant military threats at a lower cost. 22. It seems it might grow a bit slower than forecasted, but it'll still be pretty good. This process included conducting a structured analysis of persistent trends and possible game-changers, prioritizing them, and agreeing on the two variables from which the two axes of the scenario generating matrix were derived. There is some criticism about scenarios methods: there are many pitfalls in developing them,7 and the employment of different techniques can lead to diverging future constructs.8 The latter point is actually as much a benefit as a criticism, since the objective of scenario exercises is to stimulate thinking about a diverse range of possibilities. The global economic recovery lags because of setbacks in bringing an end to the COVID-19 health crisis. not alone. The reading beat market expectations and put the overall 2022 expansion at 6.4%. Alun Rhydderch. The four scenarios meet the four benchmarks for scenario development:33 they are plausible, relevant, divergent, and challenging, and are viewed from a singular in this case Israeli perspective. Ari Heistein is a Research Fellow and Chief of Staff to the Director at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). In the words of former NIC Chairman Joseph Nye Jr., The job, after all, is not so much to predict the future as to help policymakers think about the future. Key Takeaways for Israeli Decisionmakers. In . . Israels GDP per capita is not catching up to that of comparable OECD countries and the gap has remained unchanged for more than 40 years. Jerusalem: Falk Project for Economic Research in Israel, 1960. What this suggests is the importance of considering in scenarios, or in the analysis of the implications of scenarios, what we might call counter-trends or anti-trends that could emerge instead of, or even alongside, an expected trend. Regime change in the Islamic Republic of Iran does not guarantee that Tehrans regional or nuclear ambitions will be curbed. Michael Singh. It grew faster than the Eurozone average, as well as the US, Canada, and Australia. Justin Doebe is the President of Nevelis Media. Rafael Ramirez, Malobi Mukherjee, et al. A broader Saudi-Iranian dtente is then mediated by the sultan of Oman. The great powers overtures to pressure Cairo to forfeit its nuclear weapon fail after Iran acquires a nuclear weapon in 2028 (apparently purchased from North Korea) and in 2029 when special security arrangements between Pakistan and Turkey are declared widely interpreted as Islamabad extending its nuclear umbrella to Ankara. c) Ideological Volatility: Increasing political repression in the region and the diminishing window for achieving non-violent political change may cause populations to look toward more radical and violent ideologies. Avi Hasson: I want to add a purely economic, practical, and instrumental view to this. Accessed February 19, 2021. https://www.oecd.org/site/schoolingfortomorrowknowledgebase/futuresthin. Following King Salmans passing in 2021, there is an attempted palace coup dtat in Saudi Arabia in which Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS) is assassinated and the Iranians seize the opportunity to foment large-scale protests in the predominantly Shia eastern regions of the country. These steps are facilitated by a popular revolt in Iran that deposed the Islamic Republic and replaced it with a secular nationalist government. In 2022, the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his unexpected succession by Hassan Rouhani allow for a new interim agreement: the U.S. is to lift some sanctions, while Iran freezes its nuclear program and reduces its malign activity in the region. Irans reformists then win a decisive victory in the parliamentary elections of 2024, which facilitates the signing of a new and more comprehensive nuclear agreement the following year. His writings have been published in a variety of international media outlets, including The Atlantic, Foreign Policy, Jewish Review of Books, and War on the Rocks. Further distraction of the U.S. from Middle Eastern issues will provide greater room for Russia and China to maneuver, reduce the military and political constraints on other actors in the region like Turkey and Iran, and potentially allow for the proliferation of nuclear technologies; deeper U.S. involvement may rein in regional struggles and diminish the probability of the appearance of a new nuclear power in the region. Merriam-Webster. Bringing. 16. The acquisition of nuclear weapons by other Middle Eastern countries might not be initiated by Iran, could occur suddenly, and may involve several new actors almost in parallel. However, the glut in production and the decline in demand mean that prices do not shoot up and remain at or around 2019 levels. As part of this process, Iran agrees to the full integration of Shia militias into Iraqs armed forces, though Tehran retains considerable indirect levers of influence in the country. f) Societal and Economic Prospects: There are no indications that provide reason to expect a significant improvement in the fundamental social-economic problems of the Middle East that contributed to the political unrest in 2010 and onward;26 there remains a serious relative lack of human capital and the publics faith in government institutions continues to decline.27 Attempts at internal economic, social, and political reforms throughout the region are undercut by entrenched elites and ingrained practices. Rather, we hope that reviewing how the futures of the past were perceived when compared with how they developed will be instructive in formulating clearer guidelines for how to think about the future. Natan Sachs It is often valuable for this reason to get feedback and inputs from a diverse group on scenarios as they are being formulated. Sagatom Saha. How to Make Sense of Weak Signals. MIT Sloan Management Review. The Shia minority in the Gulf states are incited by Iranian propaganda directed at them, and Yemens Houthis conduct frequent strikes targeting Gulf states infrastructure with advanced missiles and UAVs. The U.S. administration is committed to tackling Middle Eastern challenges through proactive diplomacy. Iraq and Syria remain theaters of low intensity conflict between Israel and the U.S. on one side and Iran-backed forces on the other; these confrontations are characterized by recurring crises and increasing lethality. 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